Fed Chairman Powell's Marshmallow Test

2024-05-09 23:34:5701:25 22

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been so eager to take credit for engineering an economic soft landing that he’s now made one much harder to achieve. His prediction this week that the next move in interest rates is likely to be down, rather than up, perpetuates his mistake. A little more restraint in recent months would have served the Fed chair, and the economy, much better.

The Marshmallow Test is a psychological experiment designed to measure delayed gratification in children. Developed by psychologist Walter Mischel in the early 1970s, the test places a child in a room with a marshmallow and offers them a choice: They can either eat the marshmallow immediately or wait for a specified period, usually around 15 minutes, and receive a second marshmallow as a reward for their patience. The test became famous for its implications regarding self-control, willpower and future success.

Powell faced his own version of the Marshmallow Test this past fall. Following a nearly 20% rise in the price level from early 2021 and the fastest Fed hiking cycle in the past 40 years, Powell finally appeared to be getting inflation under control.

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