More than half of Japanese babies canexpect to live to 100. It horrifies today’s pessimists. They worry that, as the country ages and its populationshrinks, health bills will soar, the pension system will go bust, villages willempty and there will be too few youngsters to care for the elderly.
Yet for most people, not dying young is ablessing. Those extra years can be spent learning new skills, enjoying thecompany of loved ones or reading blood-spattered（溅满血的） Mishima novels. Japan’s prime minister, ShinzoAbe, says he wants his country to be a model of how to make ultra-long livesfulfilling—and affordable . He talks of “designing the 100-year-life society”.But to achieve that Mr Abe, in his last three years in office, will have toadopt reforms that are far bolder than he currently envisages.
The key is to have enough people workingto support those who no longer can. There are three ways to achieve this:persuade current workers to labour longer, encourage more women to enter theworkforce and let in more immigrants. Japan has made progress on all three. Theshare of over-65s in work is the highest in the G7 ; the share of women inthe labour force has recently overtaken that in America; and the Diet(parliament) is debating a bill that would allow up to 345,000 foreign workers(called “trainees”, not immigrants) to enter Japan by 2025. Companies areeagerly investing in robots to raise productivity. Mr Abe vows to reform thepublic pension system to encourage even later retirement.
All this is welcome, but it is not enough.If Japanese people are going to live to 100 they will have to retire much laterthan 70. Women are too often stuck in part-time or badly paid jobs. Nearly70,000 immigrants a year may sound like a lot, but Japan’s population isdeclining by almost 400,000 a year and there are a stunning 1.6 vacancies forevery jobseeker.
Mr Abe should let more migrants in. Somefret that foreigners will make Japan less safe and harmonious, but there is noevidence of this. Others fear that they might become a burden, but with fewexceptions the law lets them come only if they have jobs. GivenJapan’s low fertility, importing young workers is the only way to fill potholes（坑洼） and change sheets innursing homes.
Mr Abe should also create more incentivesfor locals to work longer, with a formula that automatically adjusts the timingand generosity of public pensions to reflect rising life expectancy andcontributions. This is politically difficult anywhere, but the alternative isan inevitable debt crunch.
Last, private firms should scrap theseniority system, whereby pay increases with years of service and staff areforced to quit at around 60. This survives because the people who could changeit—senior managers at large companies—benefit from it. The government can helpby banning mandatory（强制性的） retirement ages, which would force firmsto change seniority-based pay. Companies would have to reward merit instead,which would be good for productivity and for women, who lose out on promotionswhen they have babies.
An ageing society need not be a decrepitone. As Mr Abe notes, today’s elderly Japanese walk as fast as those ten yearsyounger once did. But for Japan to stay solvent（偿付能力） as it turns silver, he too must move fasterthan he has done thus far.
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