11月3日早间英文播报：Proposals set stage for bigger role in world

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The Political Bureau of the Communist Partyof China (CPC) Central Committee presides over the fifth plenary session of the19th CPC Central Committee in Beijing, capital of China. [Photo/Xinhua]

Nation'splans for medium and longer term show clear direction, experts say

China's blueprint for its futuredevelopment comes at a historic turning point in which the country is set toplay a bigger role in the global economy, according to experts.

Their comments come after proposals for thecountry's 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) for National Economic and SocialDevelopment and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035 were adopted bythe Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Partyof China, which concluded on Thursday.

Martin Jacques, a British academic andauthor, said the proposals showed that China has a clear road map for thefuture.

He said the world will be observing theproposals more closely than ever because of how China has handled the pandemicmore successfully than many Western countries.

"The world was already familiar withChina's economic competence. Now they know that China's governance can copewith the greatest of challenges," he said. "2020 is the year of 'TheGreat Transition' when the world will come to recognize China as the new globalleader."

Edward Tse, CEO and founder of Gao Feng Advisory,a management consultancy, also believes the proposals for China's medium-andlong-term growth show the country has a clear direction while many developedcountries are now just "scrambling".

"I regard this as a historical turningpoint and what China is proposing will mean that it will play a more dominantrole economically and politically in the world. I think as a result morecountries will be willing to work with China, particularly from the emergingworld," he said.

The communique issued at the end of theFifth Plenary Session said the country would achieve an economy of 100 trillionyuan ($14.9 trillion) this year and that the focus over the next five yearswill be on the quality rather than the quantity of economic growth.

There will also be an emphasis on thedomestic market in the new plan, according to the document.

China will adopt a"dual-circulation" development pattern under which factors such asdomestic consumption and indigenous technological development will play asimportant a role in driving China's development as any engagement with theinternational economy.

Setting out goals for the next five as wellas 15 years is a break from tradition. Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPCCentral Committee, made 2035 an important staging post for the country in hisreport to the 19th CPC National Congress in October 2017.

By that time, China will aim to achievemajor breakthroughs in key technologies such as advanced manufacturing,cyberspace and digital technology in order to become a global technologicalleader, according to the communique.

There will also be a focus on improving theenvironment to achieve a "Beautiful China" within this period.

The new five-year plan and the longer-rangeobjectives through 2035 will be worked on and consulted upon over the next fewmonths and be submitted to the National People's Congress, China's nationallegislature, for approval next year.

Wang Huiyao, president of the Center forChina and Globalization, a Beijing-based think tank, said the five-year planwas an important one because it is likely to steer China through themiddle-income trap.

China was defined as an upper-middle-incomecountry with a per capita income of $10,410 in 2019, according to the NationalBureau of Statistics. The World Bank defines a high-income country as one witha per capita income above $12,056.

"Many countries, particularly fromLatin America, have failed to make that breakthrough but China is putting theright policies in place such as the focus on higher quality growth," Wangsaid.

Stephen Roach, a leading US economist andsenior fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, saidthe emphasis on domestic consumption was also important but that this shouldnot be seen as just a defense against an uncertain international economicenvironment.

"With household consumption still lessthan 40 percent of China's GDP－the lowest such share of any major economy－a more aggressive push towardconsumer-led rebalancing is long overdue," he said.

Socialsecurity provision

He welcomed the proposals to significantlyincrease social security provision, which he believed would reduce the relianceon "fear-driven "precautionary saving.

" (This is) taking dead aim on a keyimpediment to an increased share of personal consumption," he said.

George Magnus, a research associate atOxford University's China Centre, said, however, that China was being driven toprioritize domestic production and consumption by a more difficultinternational environment and by attempts to decouple it from global supplychains in technology and other areas.

"China wants to become less dependenton the US and other Western suppliers," he said.

Zhu Ning, an expert on China's financialsystem and professor of finance at Shanghai Jiao Tong University's ShanghaiAdvanced Institute of Finance, insisted the emphasis on the quality rather thanquantity of growth was now the right way forward. There was no indication ofspecific GDP targets in the proposals, which appeared to be a departure fromthe past.

"This is a welcome development. Ifthere are targets for GDP they will probably be set within a range, rather thanbe specific," he said.

"Putting in place goals to be achievedover 15 years instead of five also gets people to think qualitatively ratherthan quantitatively."

For China to meet its development targets,further reform of the nation's governance system is seen as vital.

Ma Liang, a professor of public policy atRenmin University of China's National Academy of Development and Strategy inBeijing, said the Fifth Plenary Session was right to emphasize good governanceand improving government capacity.

"Government reform and innovation isvital to achieve economic and social development. It will also boost publicconfidence in government capacity," he said.

Parag Khanna, a global strategist andauthor, said one of the issues if China does achieve its development goals iswhether the world is actually big enough for a more highly developed China.

"The question is not one of China'scapacity to supply itself and the world with essential and high-tech goods, buta demand question of which economies are in position to absorb those exportsand put them to use in their economic recovery. This will be one of the centralquestions for the years ahead," he said.

At the Fifth Plenary Session, Xi said"victory was in sight" in terms of China achieving a moderatelyprosperous society in all respects in time for next year's 100th anniversary ofthe CPC.

Roach, also a former head of Asia and chiefeconomist at investment bank Morgan Stanley, said China's record on povertyreduction "is unprecedented in the annals of modern global history".

He added it was possible to have confidencein the future direction it has now set by how it has dealt with both the globalfinancial crisis in 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic this year.

"China's relative successes in dealingwith two major global crises in the past dozen years certainly stand in sharpcontrast with the approach of other leading nations," he said.

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记者：ANDREWMOODY

播报：Andew Pasek

音频编辑：万月英

原文链接：

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202011/02/WS5f9f3f89a31024ad0ba8262a.html