The results are predictable_Susan三叶草_免费在线阅读收听下载

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

MANY BUSINESS RESEARCHERS, consultants,and writers create and sell us static views— snapshots—of technologies, companies, and markets. The snapshots describe at a specific point in time the characteristics and practices of successful companies versus struggling ones; or of executives who are performing better and of those who are not at the time of the snapshot.Explicitly or implicitly, they then assert that if you want to perform as well as the best- performing ones, you should follow what the best companies and the best executives do.The snapshots tell us about those that are ahead and behind in the race.But they tell us little about how they got there. Nor do they tell us what is likely to happen in the future to those in the snapshots.
My colleagues, my students, and I have eschewed the profession of photography. Instead we are making “movies” of management.These are not,however,typical movies that you might see at a theater,where you see fiction that was conceived in the minds of the producers and screenwriters.The unusual movies that we're making at Harvard are the “theories”that we summarize in this book. They describe what causes things to happen,and why. These theories com- pose the “plots” in these movies. In contrast to the movies in a theater that are filled with suspense and surprise, the plots of our movies are perfectly predictable. You can replace the actors in our movies— different people, companies, and industries— and watch the movie again. You can choose the actions that these actors take in the movie. Be- cause the plots in these movies are grounded in theories of causality,however, the results of these actions are perfectly predictable.
致谢
很多商业研究人员、顾问、作家常常提供给我们一些关于科技、企业或者市场的静态画面，这些静态的画面就像快照，企图捕捉企业在某一个时间点的特征或表现—有些是胜利者，有些则摇摇欲坠，他们也把镜头朝向企业管理者—有的表现优异，有的则叫人摇头叹息。
不管有意或者无意，这些快照告诉我们的信息是：如果你也希望表现得像那些成功的企业那样出色，就需要学习他们的做法，这些快造也告诉我们，无论是业界的领先者还是落后者，很少会告诉你他们是如何走到今天的，也不会告诉你将来会发生什么。
我和我的同事，学生一起合著这本书则希望为你提供的是一部电影，而不只是一张张快照。在这里，所谓的电影不同于在电影院里看到的影片，而是指书中阐述的在哈佛商学院产生的理论。这些理论描述了什么导致了事情的发生，原因是什么，以及故事的情节，我们在电影院看的影片总是充满悬疑和惊险，而我们的电影情节则是可以预测的。你可以把影片中的演员换掉，例如换成不同的人，公司或者产业，然后再来看这部电影，你也可以自行决定影片中的演员采取什么样的行动，由于电影中的情节有理论根据，存在因果关系，所以你可以预测每一个行动带来的结果。

The results are predictable

The results are predictable

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