权力与预测第9章世界上最伟大的系统The Greatest

2023-04-21 20:25:1106:00 91

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权力与预测第9章世界上最伟大的系统The Greatest System of All

KEY POINTS
•创新系统本身的创新可以对许多其他系统产生级联效应。
• Innovations in the innovation system itself can have cascading effects downstream on many other systems.
镜片研磨技术的进步导致了个人光学市场(如眼镜)的创新，也导致了研究工具市场(如显微镜)的创新，从而使创新系统进一步创新。
Advances in lens-grinding technology led to innovations in the personal optics market (e.g., eyeglasses) but also in the research tools market (e.g., microscopes), which enabled further innovations in the innovation system.
从显微镜中产生了疾病的细菌理论，使与病毒和细菌的斗争成为可能，并改变了医学的其他方面。
From the microscope came the germ theory of disease, which made battling viruses and bacteria feasible and changed other aspects of medicine.
•人工智能在创新体系中的核心作用之一是预测新组合的结果。
• One of the core roles for AI in the innovation system is to predict the consequence of new combinations.
以前我们依赖科学理论或试错，现在我们有时可以(如果我们有足够的数据来训练模型)使用人工智能预测来生成假设。
Where we previously relied on scientific theory or trial and error, we can now sometimes (if we have sufficient data to train models) use AI prediction to generate hypotheses.
•自动生成假设可以显著提高创新生产率。
• Automated hypothesis generation may enhance innovation productivity significantly.
然而，为了充分受益于这项技术，我们必须重新考虑整个创新体系，而不仅仅是假设生成的这一步。
However, to fully benefit from this technology, we must reconsider the entire innovation system, not just the single step of hypothesis generation.
例如，如果流程的下一个步骤(假设测试)没有改变，只是在下游创建了一个瓶颈，那么更快的假设生成将没有什么影响。
For example, faster hypothesis generation will have little impact if the next step in the process, hypothesis testing, doesn’t change and simply creates a bottleneck downstream.