een asked to do.)Changing minds, or “updating priors”,as the forecasters would call it, might beeasier with new evidence. So Drs Kargerand Tetlock are hoping to collect some.They have asked participants in the current study to answer another set of questions about a series of “earlywarning indicators”—measures that would suggestwhether the world is on a path towards onecatastrophic scenario or another. Theamount of computer power used in largeAI training runs might serve to track thegeneral progress of the field, for instance.The eventual fate of nuclear armscontroltreaties might be another factor. The hopeis that these shorterrun questions, someof which will be resolved by 2024 and 2030,will provide a sense of whose predictionsto take more seriously—and therefore,how worried you should be.
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