有很长一段时期，经济衰退一直很温和，温和到许多观察人士认为经济周期已经停止运行。事实证明，“大稳健”只是一种幻觉。除非政府积极努力保持充分就业，否则经济几乎经常处于衰退之中。认为充分就业是市场经济的自然状态是一种幻觉。在经济衰退的情况下，市场价格无法准确反映整体经济的机会成本。除了重新分配初始的产权禀赋外，政府在提高资源市场配置的竞争性方面无能为力。宏观经济政策的关键作用是确保现有资源得到有效利用，而最重要的是工人的技能和努力，而不是经济周期的起伏。
表8-1 充分就业下的产出和就业
表8-2 经济衰退中的产出和就业
延伸阅读推荐：
Kondratieff, Nikolai D. 2014. The Long Waves in Economic Life. Eastford, CT: Martino Fine Books.
Van Duijn, J. J. 2006. The Long Wave in Economic Life. Abingdon: Routledge.
Keynes, John Maynard. 1936. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: Macmillan.
Hayek, Friedrich. 1966. Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle. New York: Augustus M. Kelley.
Bernanke, Ben S. 2004. Essays on the Great Depression. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Quiggin, John. 2011b. Zombie Economics: How Dead Ideas Still Walk Among Us (Paperback Edition). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Blyth, Mark. 2012. Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2017. Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED): Interest Rates. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/22.
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