Issue 115
"It is through the use of logic and of precise, careful measurement that we become aware of our progress. Without such tools, we have no reference points to indicate how far wehave advanced or retreated."
Do we need careful measurements and logic to determine whether and to what extent weare progressing or regressing? I agree that in certain endeavors quantitative measurements and logical analysis of data are essential for this purpose. However, in other realms objective data provides little guidance for determining progress. My view applies to individuals as well as society as a whole.
As for monitoring individual progress, the extent to which careful measurement andlogical analysis of data are required depends on the specific endeavor. In the area of personal finance, objective measurements are critical. We might feel that we are advancing financially when we buy a new car or a better home, or when our salary increases. Yet these signs of personal economic success can be deceptive. Cars depreciate quickly in value, and residential real estate must appreciate steadily to offset ownership expenses. Even a pay raise is no sure sign of personal financial progress; if the raise fails to keep pace with the cost of living then the real salary is actually in decline.
In the area of one's physical well-being, however, quantitative measurement might beuseful yet insufficient. Quantitative data such as blood pressure, cholesterol level, andbody weight are useful objective indicators of physical health. Yet quantitative measurement and logic can only take us so far when it comes to physical well-being. Levels of physical discomfort and pain, the most reliable indicators of physical well-being, cannot be quantified. And of course our emotional and psychological well-being, which can have a profound impact on our physical health, defy objective measurement altogether.
On a societal level, as on a personal level, the extent to which careful measurement andlogic are needed to determine progress depends on the endeavor. In macro-economics,as in personal finance, objective measurements are critical. For example, a municipality, state, or nation might sense that things are improving economically when its rate of unemployment declines. Yet if new jobs are in poor-paying positions involving unskilled labor, this apparent advance might actually be a retreat. And, a boom in retail sales mightamount to regress if the goods sold are manufactured by foreign firms, who benefit from the boom at the expense of domestic business expansion. Technological progress alsorequires careful measurement. Advances in computer technology can only be determined by such factors as processing and transfer speeds, numbers of installations and users,amounts of data accessed, and so forth. And, advances in biotechnology are determinedby statistical measurements of the effectiveness of new drugs and other treatments, and by demographic statistics regarding the incidence of the ailments that the technology seeks to ameliorate.
In contrast, socio-political progress is less susceptible to objective measurement. Forinstance, progress in social welfare might be measured by the number of homeless people, incidence of domestic violence, or juvenile crime rate. Yet would an increase in the number of single mothers on welfare indicate that our society is becoming more compassionate and effective in helping its victims, or would it indicate regress by showingthat our private sector and education systems are failing? Moreover, when it comes to our legal system and to politics, progress has little to do with numbers, or even logic. For example, to what extent, if any, would more lenient gun ownership laws indicate progress,
considering the competing interests of individual freedom and pubic safety? Doanti-abortion laws indicate a sociological advance or retreat? Or, when a political partygains greater control of a legislature by sweeping a particular election, is this progress orregress?
In sum, although the statement has merit, it unfairly generalizes. In areas such as finance,economics, and computing technology, all of which involve nothing but quantifiable data,nothing but careful measurement and logic suffice to determine the extent of progress. Inother areas, such as health care and social welfare, determining progress requires bothobjective measurement and subjective judgment. Finally, progress in politics and law isan entirely subjective matter--depending on each individual's values, priorities, andinterests.
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