声音简介
People often think that the best way to predict the future is by collecting as much data as possible before making a decision. But this is like driving a car looking only at the rear view mirror— because data is only available about the past.
Indeed, while experiences and information can be good teachers, there are many times in life where we simply cannot afford to learn on the job. You don't want to have to go through multiple marriages to learn how to be a good spouse. Or wait until your last child has grown to master parenthood. This is why theory can be so valuable: it can explain what will happen, even before you experience it.
Consider, for example, the history of mankind's attempts to fly.Early researchers observed strong correlations between being able to fly and having feathers and wings.Stories of men attempting to fly by strapping on wings date back hundreds of years.They were replicating what they believed allowed birds to soar: wings and feathers.
从表面上看，计算机芯片市场的竞争和全球恐怖主义的扩散似乎是需要解决的不同问题。但它们本质上是同一个问题，只是在不同的背景下。好的理论可以帮助我们分类、解释，最重要的是，预测。
人们经常认为预测未来的最好方法是在做决定之前收集尽可能多的数据。但这就像开车只看后视镜一样—因为数据只能从过去获得。
事实上，虽然经验和信息可以成为好老师，但生活中有很多时候，我们根本无法在工作中学习。你不想为了学习如何成为一个好配偶而经历多次婚姻。或者等到你的最后一个孩子成长为父母。这就是理论如此有价值的原因:它可以解释将要发生的事情，甚至在你经历之前。
例如，想想人类尝试飞行的历史。早期的研究人员观察到能够飞行和拥有羽毛和翅膀之间有很强的相关性。人们试图用带子绑在翅膀上飞行的故事可以追溯到几百年前。他们正在复制他们认为可以让鸟类翱翔的东西:翅膀和羽毛。
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