看世界｜加拿大经济开始衰退Recession

2023-01-16 08:04:2505:34 525

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The country’s top economists say: Canada isheaded for a recession, and it’s going to hit earlier, harder and last longerthan previously forecast. 加拿大的经济家们说:加拿大已经开始进入经济衰退，而且比以前更严重、更持久。

The economists say the next recession,technically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, 经济学家说，下一个衰退，从技术上讲，就是连续的两个季度经济呈现负增长is now forecast to start in the first two quarters of 2023 and willsee the Canadian economy depressed for a year and a half目前预计加拿大的经济衰退将在2023年的前两个季度开始，而这种经济萧条将持续一年半的时间。

In times of recession, businesses struggle,wages fall, jobs are lost, assets lose value, and the country’s overalleconomic well-being declines. 在经济衰退时期，企业陷入困境，工资下降，人们失业，资产贬值，国家整体的生活水平下降。

“We had so much of a boom in the last couple of years, especially thehousing market. Now, we’re dealing with the aftermath,” Porter said. 经常学家Porter说，在过去的几年里，我们经历了非常大的繁荣，尤其是房地产市场。现在，我们开始处理善后工作了。

Just how bad will that aftermath be, andwho will suffer the most? 那么究竟后果会有多糟糕，谁会受到最大的影响呢?

Past recessions tell us that interest-ratesensitive sectors such as the housing market will be hit hardest, as fewer peoplebuy when interest rates are high, and fewer people sell when home pricesplummet. That puts real estate and construction jobs at risk, with fewerclients in the market and home renovations taking a back seat. 过去的衰退告诉我们，对利率敏感的行业，比如房地产市场等将受到最严重的打击，因为在利率高的时候买房的人会更少，在房价暴跌的时候卖出的人也会更少。这让房地产和建筑行业的工作面临风险，市场上的客户减少，home renovations房屋装修工作take a back seat退居次要地位。

But the Canadian economy is also heavilydependent on the U.S., it’s largest trading partner. The U.S. Federal Reserveis pushing interest rates even more aggressively than Canada, which will likelycause a recession by the end of the year, economists say. 美国是加拿大最大的贸易伙伴。加拿大的经济严重依赖美国。经济学家说，美国联邦储备委员会的加息力度甚至超过了加拿大，这可能会导致美国在今年年底前进入经济衰退。Once a recession hits in the U.S., trade with Canada will lessen,hurting manufacturing jobs.一旦美国陷入衰退，与加拿大的贸易就会减少，从而影响加拿大的制造业人员的就业。

The upshot is that it’s the Canadianworkers in manufacturing — who dodged the impact of the pandemic shutdowns —who will likely catch the brunt of next year’s downturn. 结果是，躲过了疫情影响的加拿大制造业工人，可能会在明年的经济低迷中首当其冲。

In the U.S., the language is moving awayfrom a soft landing to a crash landing. 在美国，人们的措辞正在从软着陆转向紧急着陆。Every time we’ve seen big rate hike increases in the past, it’salways ended up in a recession. 过去每次我们看到大幅加息，最后总是以经济衰退告终。

Key Words

本期关键词

Hike: 大幅度提高，猛增的意思

recession, 衰退.

consecutive 连续的，不间断的

depress 萧条，不景气

Economicwell-being: 经济福祉意味着人们最基本的生存需求得到满足，并拥有可持续的收入和资产，因此他们可以富裕起来。

Boom: 繁荣

Deal with: 处理

Aftermath: 善后，余波

Suffer: 受苦，受折磨

Plummet: 暴跌，坠落