英语新闻丨CPI falls, but demand to recover soon

China's consumer prices dropped year-on-year in July for the first time since early 2021 while factory-gate prices continued to decline, increasing the urgency for policymakers to take more steps to boost domestic demand and support growth, said analysts.

分析人士表示，中国7月份居民消费价格同比涨幅自2021年初以来首次出现回落，同时出厂价格继续下降，这增加了政策制定者采取更多措施提振内需和支持经济增长的紧迫性。

Meanwhile, they noted that month-on-month growth in July's consumer inflation points to a gradual improvement in domestic demand, adding that inflation will return to a reasonable range in the following months with steady economic recovery and stronger policy support.

同时，他们指出，7月份消费通胀率的月度环比增长表明国内需求逐步改善，并补充说，随着经济稳步复苏和政策支持力度加大，通胀率将在接下来的几个月回到合理区间。

To address still-weak demand, they said the country may roll out a package of pro-growth measures ranging from spurring consumption to stepped-up financial support for micro and small businesses.

为了解决仍然需求疲软的问题，他们表示，国家可能会推出一揽子促进增长的措施，从刺激消费到加强对微型和小型企业的金融支持。

Their comments came as data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday that the consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, fell 0.3 percent year-on-year in July following a flat reading in June. The decline marks the first drop since February 2021.

国家统计局8月9日公布的数据显示，衡量通货膨胀的主要指标——消费者价格指数继6月份持平后，7月份同比下降了0.3%。这一下降标志着自2021年2月以来的首次下降。

Dong Lijuan, an NBS statistician, said the CPI dropped year-on-year due to a high comparison base in the previous year.

国家统计局统计师董莉娟表示，CPI同比下降是由于上一年的比较基数较高。

"The (year-on-year) decline in consumer prices is temporary," Dong said in a statement published on NBS's official website on Wednesday.

她9日在国家统计局官方网站上发表声明称：“居民消费价格（同比）下降是暂时的。”

Looking ahead, Dong said the CPI is likely to gradually rise with the economic recovery, a steady rebound in market demand, the continued improvement in the supply-demand situation and fading base effects.

展望未来，随着经济的复苏、市场需求的稳步回升、供求关系的持续改善以及基数效应的减弱，CPI有可能逐步回升。

"The negative inflation does not mean deflation for China," said Zhou Maohua, an analyst at China Everbright Bank.

中国光大银行分析师周茂华说：“负通胀对中国来说并不意味着通货紧缩。”

He expects consumer inflation to increase in the following months with the improvement in demand and stronger policy support, providing room for more stimulus to shore up the economy.

他预计，随着需求的改善和政策支持的加强，消费通胀将在接下来的几个月中上升，从而为更多的刺激政策提供支撑经济的空间。

On a month-on-month basis, July's CPI rose 0.2 percent, up from a 0.2 percent decline in June.

7月份CPI月环比上涨0.2%，高于6月份0.2%的跌幅。

The so-called core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.8 percent year-on-year in July, up from a 0.4 percent rise in June, according to the NBS.

根据国家统计局的数据，剔除了波动较大的食品和能源价格的所谓核心CPI在7月份同比上涨了0.8%，高于6月份0.4%的涨幅。

Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura, said his team expects consumer prices to drop at a slower pace with a 0.1 percent year-on-year decline in August, given that data showed that services price inflation remained robust in the summer and some food prices started to rebound in August due partially to the flooding in northern China.

野村证券（Nomura）中国区首席经济学家陆挺表示，鉴于数据显示夏季服务价格通胀依然强劲，且部分食品价格在8月份开始反弹，他的团队预计8月份居民消费价格同比降幅将放缓至0.1%。

The producer price index, which gauges factory-gate prices, was down 4.4 percent from a year earlier in July after the 5.4 percent annual contraction in June, the NBS said.

国家统计局称，衡量出厂价格的生产者价格指数继6月份同比下降5.4%之后，7月份又同比下降了4.4%。

Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said he expects the contraction in the PPI to continue to narrow with a lower base.

中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，他预计在基数较低的情况下，生产价格指数（PPI）的收缩幅度将继续收窄。

"China's core inflation has remained at historically low levels since the beginning of this year, pointing to still-weak domestic demand," Wen said.

温彬说：“自今年年初以来，中国的核心通胀率一直保持在历史较低水平，这表明国内需求仍然疲软。”

However, he said, with a package of recently released countercyclical policy measures, China will likely witness a rebound in domestic demand and a gradual return of core inflation to its average levels.

然而，他说，随着近期一揽子反周期政策措施的出台，中国将有可能迎来国内需求的反弹，核心通胀率也将逐步恢复到平均水平。

NBS data showed the official purchasing managers' index for China's manufacturing sector remained in the contraction zone for the fourth consecutive month.

国家统计局数据显示，中国制造业官方采购经理人指数连续第四个月保持在收缩区间。

Xiong Yuan, chief economist at Guosheng Securities, said the country is set to take more steps to stabilize the overall economy, with a focus on boosting market confidence, expanding domestic demand, spurring consumption and stabilizing the property sector.

国盛证券首席经济学家熊园表示，中国将采取更多措施稳定整体经济，重点是提振市场信心、扩大内需、刺激消费和稳定房地产行业。

Lu, from Nomura, said his team expects the People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank, to deliver two more rounds of rate cuts of 10 basis points each, as well as a 25-basis-point reserve requirement ratio cut before the end of the year.

野村证券的陆挺说，他的团队预计中国央行，即中国人民银行将在年底前再降息两轮，每次降息10个基点，并下调存款准备金率25个基点。

Inflation

英/ɪnˈfleɪʃ(ə)n/美/ɪnˈfleɪʃ(ə)n/

n.通货膨胀，通胀率

Demand

英/dɪˈmɑːnd/ 美/dɪˈmænd/

n.需求，需求量