How coronavirus almost brought down the global financial system (1)
冠状病毒如何几乎摧毁了全球金融体系 (1)
Business The Guardian
商业 卫报
For the rest of the world economy, this run to safety was an alarming signal. One sector that knew it was heading for trouble was oil. When the global economy slows, so does the demand for energy. The oil industry of the 21st century consists, on the one hand, of large, state-controlled producers – above all the Opec group dominated by Saudi Arabia and Russia – and, on the other hand, of the US’s upstart fracking industry. To match falling demand for oil, the Saudis wanted to cut overall production and thus prop up the price. For this they needed the agreement of the other big producers, but Russia refused to go along with them. As Moscow saw it, cutting production with a view to propping up prices was an invitation to American shale producers to fill the gap. If the politics of climate change meant that the future really would bring a transition away from fossil fuel, winning the end game involved seizing as much of the market as possible for as long as oil was being pumped. So Russia decided not to cut production, but to launch a price war. Not wanting to be outdone, over the weekend of 7-8 March, Saudi Arabia took up the challenge. It announced that it would be maximising production and discounting its prices.
对于世界其他经济体来说，这种避险是一个令人担忧的信号。首当其冲知道自己遇到麻烦的行业是石油业。当全球经济放缓时，对能源的需求也会放缓。21世纪的石油行业一方面由国有大型石油生产商组成，尤其是由沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯主导的欧佩克集团，另一方面是美国新兴的水力压裂取油法（页岩气）。为了应对石油需求的下降，沙特希望削减总产量，从而支撑油价。为此，他们需要得到其他大型生产商的同意，但俄罗斯拒绝同意。在莫斯科看来，为了支撑价格而减产是等于邀请美国页岩气生产商来填补这个市场缺口。如果关于气候变化的政治博弈意味着未来真的会从化石燃料转型，那么在石油开采期内，要想最好的收关，就要尽可能多地占领市场。所以俄罗斯决定不减产，而是发动价格战。在3月7日至8日的周末，因为不想处于不利地位，沙特决定接受俄罗斯的这一挑战。沙特宣布将最大限度地提高产量并降低价格。
On Monday 9 March, as markets opened, oil prices plummeted. The benchmark Brent crude fell 24% by the end of trading. By the end of the month its value had halved. From the point of view of the financial markets, the ferocity of the competition in the oil industry was a harbinger of things to come. Falling demand would force industry after industry to either slash prices or contract production. Either way, it was bad news for profits.
3月9日星期一，市场开盘后，油价暴跌。基准的布伦特原油在交易结束时下跌了24%。到月底，贬值了一半。从金融市场的角度来看，石油行业激烈的竞争是未来的先兆。需求下降将迫使一个又一个行业要么大幅降价，要么减产。不管怎样，这对利润来说都是坏消息。
Key words:
Fracking 水力压裂取油法（页岩气）/shale produce: 页岩油生产商
Propping up prices 支撑价格
To fill the gap 填补这个(市场)缺口
To launch a price war 发动价格战
to be outdone 处于不利地位; 被超过
Brent crude 布伦特原油
Harbinger 先兆
To slash prices 大幅降价
To cut/contract production 减产
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