乘坐本次时光机,前往2025年

2024-02-14 10:09:1010:07 3482
声音简介

Do you remember yourself 10 years ago?
还记得十年前的生活吗?
The world around you was very different from now, wasn't it?
当时的世界和现在也是大相径庭,对吧?
No wonder: the 21st century is the age of rapid technological progress, and we're advancing at a mind-blowing rate.
显然,21世纪是技术飞速进步的时代,我们的发展速度也十分振奋人心。
So what do you think our world will look like by 2025?
那么,你觉得2025年的世界会是什么样子呢?
It's only a little bit more than 5 years from now, but by various accounts it's going to be really exciting in 5 years.
这虽只是短短的未来五年,但种种迹象表明五年之后的世界将十分令人兴奋。
Let's see.
让我们一睹为快。
Solar panels will beat fossil fuels in energy output, becoming the largest source of energy on the planet.
能源方面,太阳板将代替化石燃料,太阳能将成为全球占比最大的消耗能源。
Researchers from Thomson Reuters are sure this will happen because of new and modernized materials.
汤森路透集团的研究人员表示:借助新型现代材料,这一愿景有望实现。
With those, solar panels will be able to absorb much more sunlight, and even when it's overcast.
使用这种材料,太阳能板可以吸收更多的光能,并且不受阴天的影响。
Augmented and virtual reality will become a thing.
增强与虚拟现实技术将得以推广。
Today, it's a pretty new and raw technology, but 5 years from now it will already be something everyone uses in their everyday lives.
现在,这一新技术还不成熟,不过五年之后,日常生活中人人都将使用这项技术。
For example, you'll be able to have a virtual tour around a hotel before booking a room in it.
例如,在预定一家宾馆的时候,你可以通过虚拟技术先参观一下。
Or how about taking a good look at 3D models of all goods in a store before adding them to your cart?
或者,还可以在加入购物车前,提前通过3D技术看看商店中的货品。
Handy!
很好用!
Speaking of augmentations, people themselves will become enhanced.
说到增强,我们自身也可以得到增强。
Microchips embedded into your skin instead of a paper or plastic ID; bionic limbs having all the functions real arms and legs possess; implants improving the work of internal organs; you name it!
微芯片可以植入皮肤,纸质或者塑料做的身份证件就不需要了;仿生肢体具备四肢的一切功能;只要是你能够说得上的人体内部器官,其机能都可以通过植入物得到改善!
By 2025, all this and more will become available to the masses, and from then on it'll only get cheaper and more popular.
到了2025年,所有这些都会得到普及,届时,价格会更低,受欢迎程度会更高。
The problem of traffic jams will either be solved altogether or very close to it.
交通堵塞的问题将会完全解决,或者说基本解决。
With the growing demand for driverless cars and even flying cars (I can't wait! ), the human factor will decrease dramatically.
随着对无人驾驶起者和飞行汽车(我迫不及待了!)需求的增长,我们就不会再去驾驶汽车了。
And since it's the main reason why traffic congestion even exists, big cities will finally enjoy relatively free roads, and we'll all be able to get things done on time.
交通堵塞的主要原因就是人们自驾驶汽车,所以大城市的道路就会变地畅行无阻,我们就会准时到达目的地了。
Can't wait for that!
又迫不及待了!
By the way, gasoline fuel will become a fading memory by 2025.
顺便一提,到时候,汽油在2025年将被逐渐淡忘。
Electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles will push gas-powered ones further and further out of the market.
电动汽车、氢能源汽车将把燃油汽车远远挤出市场。
Also, solar-powered cars will probably emerge, gradually replacing all the rest.
同时,太阳能汽车可能会出现,并逐渐替代替他类型汽车。
Just imagine: a car that only requires sunlight and some time to charge before you can go wherever you please.
想想一下:一辆汽车只需要阳光来充一会电就可以想开到哪就开到哪。
No more running out of fuel in the middle of nowhere!
绝不会在半路没有油了!
The Internet of Things, or IoT, will be omnipresent.
物联网将无处不在。
Smart homes, smart offices, whole smart buildings — literally everything will be connected with everything else, separated only by closed internal networks.
智能家、智能办公室,智能建筑,几乎所有的一切都联系在了一起,只有内部网络切段才会被分离。
Living alone yet coming home from work with a hot dinner and a clean house will become reality.
独自一人居住,下班回家还有热腾腾的晚餐,房间也打扫干净了,这些也将成为现实。
Everything will be done automatically, following just a few flicks of your finger over the smartphone or tablet screen.
一切都由自动化完成,只需点击几下手机或者平板电脑即可。
The Internet will become truly global.
互联网真正全球化。
Today, only 3 billion people in the world have constant access to the web, while the other 5 billion have either limited access or none at all.
今天,只有30亿的人口保持上网在线,而另外50亿人不是上网受限,就是根本没有网络可用。
Several large companies, like Google, Facebook, and Space X, are already working together on a project that will bring the Internet to everyone on the planet at speeds over 1 megabit per second.
多家大公司,如谷歌、Facebook、太空探索技术公司,正在开展合作项目,旨在让所有人享受上网速度为1兆比特每秒的网络服务。
By 2025, it will surely be implemented.
2025年,这一计划将得以实行。
Artificial intelligence will make a huge leap forward.
人工智能将产生巨大飞跃。
In 5 years' time, the AI will not only be able to answer simple questions and follow your commands, but it will also become deeper and more inquisitive itself.
五年后,人工智能技术不但可以回答简单的问题,遵从你的指令,而且自身也会更高级更主动。
It will probably even be able to talk to you — not like Siri does today but rather like Tony Stark's JARVIS. In short, it will become everyone's ultimate helper.
甚至可以和你对话,而且还不是如今Siri的模式,更像是钢铁侠的人工智能管家。简单一点说,就是人人拥有的终极管家。
Medicine won't stay where it is either.
医疗也会进步。
Even now, more and more advancements are made in this crucial field, and in 5 years, doctors will find solutions to the most important issues we're currently facing.
就是在现在,这一关键性的领域取得的进展也越来越多,五年之后,医生将会解决我们如今面临的重大问题。
These include a cure for cancer and AIDS, diabetes, Alzheimer's, and many other conditions that have plagued humans for a long time already.
包括攻克艾滋病、糖尿病、老年痴呆症,以及许多困扰人类多年的疾病。
Of course, it's not as easy as it sounds, and it won't be cheap at first, but the main thing is that the answers will be found, and the rest is a matter of time.
当然了,听着似乎很容易,起初费用肯定不菲,但关键在于这些疾病是有望治愈的,降价就是时间的问题了。
Human genome will most probably be cracked, and only ethical issues will remain before genetic modifications of people become available.
人类基因组很有可能被破解,人类基因改造可能实现,不过这还牵扯到伦理道德问题。
With those, we'll be able to get rid of pretty scary genetic conditions in children even before they're born.
通过基因改造,在婴儿出生之前就可以去除不利的基因。
Scientists all over the world discuss this possibility even today, so by 2025 the question should have a definite answer.
时至今日,科学家依旧在讨论这一做法的可行性,到了2025年,这一问题将会有一个明确的答案。
Plastic will finally become a thing of the past.
塑料也终将成为历史。
The same Thomson Reuters report I told you about earlier says that by 2025 biodegradable materials based on cellulose will replace plastic packaging for all purposes.
上文中说到的汤森路透集团的研究还表明:到2025年,可降解的生物纤维素材料将代替各种用途的塑料制品。
No more littering the soil and the oceans—we'll be making a huge step towards a greener planet.
土地和海洋中将不再会有塑料垃圾,这为实现绿色星球,又迈出了一大步。
And the new material will feel like plastic, by the way, so you won't even notice the difference!
而且新材料就如同塑料的质感一样,甚至感觉不出两者的不同!
A little bit of sci-fi for you: teleportation and time travel won't be a myth any longer.
这一方面,有点科幻小说的味道:瞬间移动和时间旅行或许不再是梦。
Scientists have recently discovered that quantum teleportation is possible, while others made an experiment where particles returned to their previous state, making it seem like time traveling for them.
科学家们不久前发现量子瞬间传输时能够实现的,另外有试验表明,粒子可以回到初始状态,这好似时间旅行一样。
The researchers stress that quantum experiments can't prove that these things can actually be repeated in the material world.
不过研究人员表示:量子世界的活动,在物质世界可能无法实现。
And of course, we won't be able to go to the past or teleport around the world in 5 years' time.
当然,要想在五年后实现回到过去或者在全球随意进行瞬间传输还是不可能的。
But the concept itself will become more real either way.
不管怎么说,这一概念距离实现越来也近了。
With genetic modification becoming commonplace, modified crops will be grown indoors.
随着基因改造的推行,转基因作物将在室内种植。
Changes to the plants' DNA will make them more resilient and less prone to failure, while at the same time increasing the yield.
改变植物的基因,令其具备更强的适应性和生命力,同时增加产量。
The times when GMOs were up for debate will have long since gone, and everyone will be able to literally taste the progress.
对于转基因生物的争论到已成为过眼云烟,人类将会享受到进步的成果。
Robots will take over the most menial jobs on the market, making humans turn their attention to more intellectual tasks and opening new opportunities for avid learners.
市场上绝大部分的基础卑微工作将由机器人取代,让人类得以专注于更为高级的智能工作,为渴望学习的人提供新机会。
Everything that can be done by robots will not require human assistance any longer.
所有机器人可以完成的工作不再需要人类的辅助。
However, in some spheres, these robotic workers won't be completely autonomous.
不过,一些领域,机器工作还不能完全自动化。
They will have to be manipulated by people either directly or by programming them to do the required stuff.
有些机器必须有人直接操控,或者通过程序操控,来完成要求的任务。
That will open up new jobs, so no need to fear that robots will take away from us and add to the unemployment rate.
这会产生新的工作类型,所以不必担心机器将会取代我们,导致失业率增加。
Speaking of learning, acquiring new skills will be much easier in 5 years than today.
至于在学习方面,获得新的技能在五年之后将变得更加简单。
With the development of AR and VR, of which I told you earlier on, even the most practical skills will stop needing your actual presence in the room with your teacher.
通过前面提到过的增强现实和虚拟现实的技术,哪怕是实践性最强的技术也无需在教室里跟老师上课。
Want to learn how to drive a car?
想学开车吗?
Here's a simulator, right in the comfort of your home!
这个驾驶模拟器,在家就能使用!
Perhaps such a method of learning won't be too widespread yet, but it will definitely start taking over the minds of people and get more and more popular with every passing year.
或许这样的学习方式尚未普及,但是这一模式一定会越来越受到人们的重视,逐步受到欢迎。
Machine learning will also make large progress.
机器学习同样会取得长足进步。
Things like near-perfect electronic translators, navigation systems that adapt to your driving style, and other gadgets and software will make our everyday lives much easier.
例如,近乎完美的电子翻译机,适应你驾驶风格的导航系统,以及其他让我们日常生活更加简洁的小设备和应用。
We'll be able to communicate with anyone we want almost without the language barrier and do our routine stuff quickly and without any discomfort.
我们可以和任何人进行沟通,不再有语言障碍,日常工作也会轻轻松松完成。
And it's all thanks to clever machines that teach themselves off their surroundings and the decisions taken, either by humans around them or by the machine itself.
这一切都要归功智能机器,它可以根据周围环境和人类或者其自身的决策实现自我提升。
5G mobile Internet connection will be a common thing in most technologically advanced countries and cities.
5G移动通讯技术将在大多数技术发达的国家和城市得到推广。
With 4G, it takes up to an hour to download a movie from the web; 5G takes it to a whole new level, downloading the same movie in just a few seconds.
使用4G网络,从网站下载一部电影需要一小时;然而5G实现了新高度,下载同样的电影仅需几秒钟。
The connection speed of this network is simply astounding, and it allows all kinds of things to be done, from real-time broadcasting of sports events, like it was done during the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang in 2018, to long-distance manipulation of robot surgeons by actual doctors.
5G网络的速度让人惊讶不已,一切都掌握在手中,从实时体育赛事转播,例如,5G成功转播了2018年平昌冬奥会,到医生实施远程手术。
Blockchain will become the preferred method of transferring money and valuable assets between people and organizations.
区块链将成为人与组织之间转移资金与资产的首选方式。
You must have heard about bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies — those are based on the blockchain technology.
你一定听说过比特币和其他加密货币,这就是基于区块链技术的产物。
In short, it allows you to get rid of the middleman while transferring your money, making the operation secure and direct.
简言之,就是在转移资金时避免中间人,操作安全又直接。
For example, when you make a transfer from card to card, your bank plays the role of that middleman: it tracks all your transactions and can block your account if you do something it thinks suspicious.
比方说,当你从一张银行卡转钱到另一张银行卡时,银行就扮演了中间角色:你所有的交易记录都会被监视,如果交易行为异常,账户就会被冻结。
With blockchain, nobody but you knows of your operations, which makes it pretty awesome — you know your money is always in your hands.
但是基于区块链,没人知道你的交易,这可太棒了,你的钱永远在自己手里。
Until you spend it.
直到你花出去之前。
And finally, entertainment will become even more diverse with the growth in popularity of space tourism.
最后,太空旅行将会流行起来,娱乐活动也随之多样化起来。
Right now, entrepreneurs like Richard Branson and Elon Musk are only getting ready to launch their first space tours, and they'll only be affordable for the wealthiest.
目前,只有像理查德·布兰森和埃隆·马斯克这样的企业家才刚开始启动自己的太空旅行计划,因为只有有钱人才能负担得起费用。
But by 2025, the cost of it will slowly start to decrease as the whole process will become more easily performed.
不过到了2025年,太空旅行将更容易操作,费用也随之开始下降了。
I'm not saying we'll all be able to go see the stars first hand, it'll still be very expensive, but it will be a beginning, and who knows — maybe in another decade we'll be riding rockets into orbit like we fly in airplanes today?
并不是时我们就能直接上去看星星了,价格依然很贵,但这是一个开端,没准下一个十年,我们坐火箭绕轨道运行,就像今天坐飞机一样了,这谁说得准呢?
What do you think will happen in five years' time?
五年后是什么情况,说说你的看法?

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