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Some of the most frequent offenders in failing to abide by this theory are big investors and successful existing businesses looking to invest in new growth businesses. The way in which this happens is through a predictable and simple three-step process, as articulated by Matthew Olson and Derek van Bever in Stall Points.
The first step is that because the probability is so high that the initial plan isn't viable, the investor needs to invest in the next wave of growth even while the original business is strong and growing—to give the new initiative the time to figure out a viable strategy.Despite this, the owner of the capital postpones the investment because today it seems unwarranted, given the strength of the core business and its incessant appetite for more capital investment and executive bandwidth. Deal with tomorrow tomorrow.
In the next step,tomorrow arrives.The original core business has become mature and stops growing.The owner of the capital suddenly realizes that he should have invested several years earlier in the next growth business, so that when the core business stalled, the next engine of growth and profit would already be taking over as the engine for growth and profit.
Instead,the engine just isn't there.
Third, the owner of the capital demands that any business that he invests in must become very big,very fast.For a venture that generates $40 million of business, to grow at a 25 percent annual rate you'll need to find $10 million of new growth next year. But if a venture has grown to become a $40 billion business and wants to continue growing 25 percent next year, you'll need to find $10 billion in new business.The stakes—and pressure— become enormous. To accelerate it faster, shareholders pour lots of capital into these initiatives.But all too often, this abundant capital gives fuel to the entrepreneurs, allowing them to recklessly pursue the wrong strategy aggressively. As these new businesses drive at full speed over the cliff, analysts construct unique stories for why each one failed.
你需要遮荫前，请种树苗
违规者经常是一些大投资者和成功的企业，他们投资新项目时不遵守这一理论。正如马修·奥尔森和德里克·范·贝弗在《失速点》中阐述的那样，这种情况的发生通过可预测的简单的三个步骤就可以避免。
第一步是，由于最初的计划不可行的可能性很大，投资者需要在现有业务强劲增长的同时投资下一波业务——让新的计划有时间找到可行的战略。尽管如此，投资人总推迟投资，因为考虑到核心业务的实力以及核心业务需要密集地投入更多资本，现在似乎还不需要投资另外的业务，明天再说吧。
等明天到了，原来的核心业务不但成熟，而且停止增长了。投资人突然意识到，他应该早几年就投资另外的业务，这样当核心业务停滞不前时，下一个就能马上接管，成为新的增长和利润的引擎。现状相反，根本没有发动机。
投资者要求他投资的任何企业必须发展得非常大，非常快。对于一个创造4000万美元业务的企业来说，要以25%的年增长率增长，明年需要新增长1000万美元。但是，如果一个企业已经发展成为一个400亿美元的企业，希望明年继续增长25%，需要新增长100亿美元。风险和压力都巨大。为了加快速度，股东们向这些计划投入大量资本。但通常情况下，这种充裕的资本会让企业家头脑发热，肆无忌惮地积极地推行错误的战略。随着这些新业务断崖式的失败，分析师们会为每次失败的投资杜撰独特的故事。
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