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Of course, it's easy to say be open to opportunities as they emerge. It's much harder to know which strategy you should actually pursue. Is the current deliberate strategy the best course to continue on, or is it time to adopt a different strategy that is emerging? What happens if ten opportunities present at once? Or if one of them requires a substantial investment on your part just to find out whether it's something that you're going to enjoy? Ideally, you don't want to have togo through medical school to figure out you don't want to be a doctor.So what can you do to figure out what has the best chance of working out for you?
There's a tool that can help you test whether your deliberate strategy or a new emergent one will be a fruitful approach. It forces you to articulate what assumptions need to be proved true in order for the strategy to succeed.The academics who created this process, Ian MacMillan and Rita McGrath,called it “discovery-driven planning,”but it might be easier to think about it as“What has to prove true for this to work?”
As simple as it sounds,companies seldom think about whether to pursue new opportunities by asking this question.
Instead,they often unintentionally stack the deck for failure from the beginning.They make decisions to go ahead with an investment based on what initial projections suggest will happen, but then they never actually test whether those initial projections are accurate. So, they can find themselves far down the line, adjusting projections and assumptions to fit what is actually happening,rather than making and testing thoughtful choices before they get too far in.
要达到这效果，需要证实什么？
当然，当机会出现时，很容易说对它们持开放态度。但你要知道，实际上应该采取哪种策略却困难得多。目前深思熟虑的策略继续下去是不是最佳途径，还是应该采取正在出现的不同策略？如果十个机会同时出现会发生什么？或者如果他们中的一个需要你进行大量投资，只是为了发现它是否是你会喜欢的东西？理想情况下，你不用上医学院来发现自己不想当医生。那么，你能做些什么来找出什么对你来说是最好的机会呢？
有一个工具可以帮助你测试你的深思熟虑的策略或新的应急策略是否会是一个富有成效的方法。你得阐明哪些假设需要被证实是正确的，这样的战略就能成功。创造这一设想的学者伊恩·麦克米伦和丽塔·麦格拉思称之为“发现驱动的规划”，但更容易理解为“要使这一过程奏效，什么必须被证实是正确的？”
听起来很简单，公司很少通过问这个问题来思考是否要追求新的机会。
相反，他们往往从一开始就无意中把失败的筹码堆在一起。他们会根据最初的预测来决定是否进行投资，但是他们从来没有真正测试过这些最初的预测是否准确。因此，他们发现时自己已经走了很远，调整预测和假设以适应实际发生的事情，而不是在他们走得太远之前做出并测试深思熟虑的选择。
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