亚洲大部分地区：未富先老_用英语看世界_免费在线阅读收听下载

The Economist: Large parts of Asia are getting old before they get rich
经济学人:亚洲大部分地区未富先老
导读: 即使是发展中国家，也必须开始为人口老龄化制定计划了。
A bulge in a country's working-age population is a blessing.
一个国家的劳动适龄人口增长是件幸事。
Lots of workers support relatively few children and retired people.
大量的劳动者可以供养相对较少的儿童和退休老人。
So long as the labour market can absorb a surge of job-seekers, output per head will rise.
只要劳动力市场能够吸纳大量求职者，人均产出就会提高。
That can boost savings and investment, leading to higher economic growth, more productivity gains and developmental lift-off.
这可以促进储蓄和投资，带来更高的经济增长、更多的生产率提高和发展
的腾飞。
Yet for countries that fail to seize this opportunity, the results can be grim—as many developing countries may soon discover.
然而，未能抓住这一红利的国家形势可能会很严峻——许多发展中国家可
能很快就会发现这一点。
Consider Thailand.
以泰国为例。
It is rapidly greying.
它正在迅速老龄化。

In 2021 the share of Thais aged 65 or over hit 14%, a threshold that is often used to define an aged society.
2021年，泰国65岁及以上的人口比例将达到14%，达到用来定义老龄化社会的临界值。
Soon Thailand will, like Japan, South Korea and most Western countries, see a dwindling supply of workers and, without extraordinary measures,
很快，泰国将像日本、韩国和大多数西方国家一样，会发现劳动力供应减
少，而且如果不采取非常措施，
flagging productivity and growth.
生产率将下降，经济增长会变得迟缓。
Yet unlike Japan and the rest, Thailand, with a gdp per person of just $7,000 in 2021, is not a developed country.
然而，与日本和其他国家不同的是，泰国2021年的人均GDP仅为7000美元，并不是一个发达国家。
It has got old before it has got rich.
泰国人未富先老。
When Japan had a similar portion of oldies, it was roughly five times richer than Thailand is today.
当日本老年人比例接近这个数值的时候，它的富裕程度大约是今天泰国的 5倍。
This is a big obstacle to Thailand's future development.
这是泰国未来发展的一大障碍。
To protect its ageing citizens, many of whom are poor, Thailand's government will have to spend more on health care and pensions.
为了保护老龄化公民(其中许多人是穷人)，泰国政府必须在医疗保健和
养老金方面投入更多资金。
This will make it harder to invest in productivity-boosting skills and infrastructure.
这将加大对提高生产力的技能和基础设施进行投资的难度。
And where Thailand goes, many developing countries will follow.
泰国走向何方，许多发展中国家会紧随其后。
In Asia, where the problem is most advanced,
在问题最严重的亚洲，

Indonesia and the Philippines are also likely to become aged societies at lower income levels than was the case in the rich world.
与富裕国家相比，印度尼西亚和菲律宾也有可能在收入水平较低的情况下
成为老龄社会。
Sri Lanka, where the average income is a third lower than Thailand's, will become aged by 2028.
斯里兰卡的人均收入比泰国低三分之一，到2028年将进入老龄化阶段。
Countries that age before growing rich have failed to seize their demographic opportunity, or aged out of it too rapidly, or suffered both problems.
那些未富先老的国家，要么未能抓住人口红利，要么老龄化速度过快，要
么同时遭遇了这两个问题。

亚洲大部分地区：未富先老

亚洲大部分地区：未富先老

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