声音简介
Only after you understand the relative importance of all the underlying assumptions should you green-light the team— but not in the way that most companies tend to do.Instead, find ways to quickly, and with as little expense as possible,test the validity of the most important assumptions.
Once the company understands whether the initial important assumptions are likely to prove true, it can make a much better decision about whether to invest in this project or not.
The logic of taking this approach is compelling—of course everyone wants to achieve gorgeous numbers, so why go through the pretense of asking managers to keep work- ing on them until they look good? Instead, this approach of “What assumptions must prove true?” offers a simple way to keep strategy from going far off-course. It causes teams to focus on what truly matters to get the numbers to material- ize.If we ask the right questions,the answers generally are easy to get.
相反,要求项目团队编制一份清单,列出在这些初始预测中已经做出的所有假设。然后问他们:“这些假设中的哪一个需要被证明是真的,我们才能现实地预期这些数字会实现?”这个列表上的假设应该按照重要性和不确定性进行排序。列表的顶部应该是最重要和最不确定的假设,而列表的底部应该是最不重要和最确定的假设。
只有在你理解了所有潜在假设的相对重要性之后,你才应该给团队开绿灯——但不是像大多数公司做的那样。取而代之的是,找到方法,以尽可能少的费用,快速测试最重要假设的有效性。
一旦公司明白最初的重要假设是否有可能被证明是真的,它就可以对是否投资这个项目做出更好的决定。
采取这种方法的逻辑是令人信服的——当然每个人都想获得华丽的数字,那么为什么要假装要求经理们继续努力,直到他们看起来很好?相反,这种“什么假设必须证明是真的”的方法提供了一种简单的方法来防止策略偏离轨道。这使得团队专注于真正重要的事情,以使数字变成现实。如果我们问对了问题,答案通常很容易得到。
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